B2B supply chain as a whole, short-term worst hit by SARS, but medium and long term Control Engineering Copyright , the economic down cycle CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , the enterprise down this efficiency demands of long-term positive development of B2B supply chain industry. First, the investment value of B2B supply chain vertical segments of the track under the influence of this epidemic outbreaks analysis resulted in a greater impact on the whole supply chain B2B, numerous enterprises are facing life and death issues, but the crisis often breeds opportunity. In order to more fully determine the epidemic on investment opportunities in the domestic supply chain enterprises and the potential impact of supply chain segmentation track, we select overseas mature B2B supply chain enterprises as the target, the target enterprise by analyzing the H1N1 epidemic in the United States in 2009, Brazil in 2015 ZIKA epidemic outbreak and after the performance of MERS Middle East, the current situation of the market supply chain B2B, given our investment judgment subdivision track right.
(a) food supply chain 1, the standard business analysis benchmarking companies choose to: United States Sysco Corporation selected period of time: in 2009 the US epidemic overall impact is limited during the H1N1 epidemic on the head of the enterprise: Although Sysco which the food supply chain areas downstream customers (supermarkets, restaurants) epidemic affected more obvious, but the track segment Sysco as the head enterprise, reflecting the strong operating strength of the defensive, and therefore, even in the peak epidemic period www.cechina. cn , revenues and EBIT decline is also only within single digits; the initial impact of the epidemic is more obvious, but then there will be compensatory consumption: (1) the initial outbreak and decrease costs by demand-side end of the inflationary impact , food supply chain performance of enterprises greater impact. But with the gradual easing of the epidemic and inflation, the business situation is gradually returning to normal; (2) After the outbreak all over, compensatory consumption demand appears, enterprise performance have increased; the downside macroeconomic cycles will accelerate the industry consolidation: Sysco its solid financial strength, increase the intensity of mergers and acquisitions in the macro-economic down cycle, and therefore, the supply chain food industry to accelerate the reshuffle, Hengqiang trend. 2, the domestic market impact and opportunity analysis PhytophthoraLove larger short-term impact: In Taiwan, affected by the epidemic, mostly in a cliff-style catering business revenue fell, but the high costs such as rent and staff wages still paid a substantial outflow of cash flow. Therefore, a large number of food and beverage companies will face a crisis due to cash flow break and collapse, the impact on the food supply chain upstream industry. B terminal, C-terminal reaction quite different: although under epidemic catering business like B-end customer demand have fallen sharply, a personal online orders for the C-terminus of the explosive growth actually was, offshore investment team concern over the recent fresh produce business enterprise significant growth in sales, while its supply chain, distributors and service providers have also benefited. After the above three cars: 1 market supply chain, benchmarking analysis of business enterprises to choose the standard (b) Vehicles: United States AutoZone, O’Reilly, Advance Auto Parts selected time period: 2009 United States during the H1N1 epidemic on the impact of the epidemic have defensive market supply chain enterprises have significant defensive in the 2009 economic down cycle, the main reason there are three points: (1) Mileage (km) car stable growth, protect the car business market demand; (2) the economic downturn led to a new car declining sales, increased old car; (3) decline in oil prices will also drive growth in the number of driving kilometers, thus boosting the growth of the car market. At the same time, wearing parts and maintenance relative to maintenance parts and pieces of the accident, the economic down cycle usually have better sales, but also indirectly support the car after market. 2, the domestic market impact and opportunity analysis is still optimistic about the long-term investment value: affected by the epidemic in the short term lead to more road closed to traffic, commercial vehicles and private cars to reduce the frequency of use, makes the car wearing parts and reduced the frequency of consumption of service parts, repair shop income decline. Downstream weakness and logistics disruption also caused the car supply chain-related enterprises in the short term decline in performance. However, medium and long term Control Engineering Copyright , the limited impact of the epidemic, the current Chinese vehicle maintenance amount is still in the continued growth, the economic down cycle, the average age of vehicles increase, the epidemic does not change the long-term trend, after the car market still has investment value. (Iii) MRO supply chain 1, the standard business analysis benchmarking companies choose to: United States Grainger, Fastenal selected time period: 2009 United States during the H1N1 outbreak defense is weak: MRO supply chain market in the economic downturn in relatively defensiveweak. Grainger and Fastenal2009年收入分别下滑了 9.2% and 17.5%. This is because the MRO industry and economic trends showed a strong positive correlation, particularly with industrial production, payrolls positive correlation is obvious. 2, the domestic market impact and opportunity analysis online mode usher outbreak: MRO supply chain companies in the larger economic down cycle pressure, but taking into account China MRO supply chain industry is still in a stage of rapid development, and promote the epidemic downstream customers purchase change habits – by a large number of site selection to change category for online product selection, MRO supply chain is expected to accelerate its online mode. (D) the commodity supply chain 1, to mark the selection of standard business enterprises to choose: Vale a selected time period Brazil: Brazil ZIKA epidemic during 2015, while superimposing the Middle East MERS outbreak. Highly correlated with the economic cycle: As one of the largest commodity supply chain companies in Brazil and the world, Vale’s performance and commodity prices as well as global macroeconomic highly linked, therefore, the year 2015, compared with 2014 income Vale in sharp drop 31.8%, a net loss of $ 12.62 billion. According to management estimates, iron ore prices fell $ 100 per tonne will allow the company’s revenue by more than $ 300 million. In view of this, the macro-economic down cycle, investment in commodities track need to be careful. 2, the domestic market impact and opportunity analysis of the overall impact of large: During the outbreak, epidemic prevention materials subject to poor demand and production information transmission mechanism, epidemic prevention materials production into a serious bottleneck, resulting in a similar number of state-owned commodity producers were forced to start production epidemic prevention materials. While commodity supply chain companies, start new businesses involved in the production – helping manufacturers docking bulk raw materials, production equipment, production process and so on. (E) the pharmaceutical and healthcare supply chain 1, to mark the selection of standard business enterprises to choose: the US company 3M selected period of time: a counter-cyclical defensive during the H1N1 outbreak in 2009 the United States: You can see by the chart, compared to 3M’s business segments in 2009, the performance of its medical and pharmaceutical sector has significant defensive in the epidemic and the macroeconomic down cycle. At the same time, under the influence of the epidemic, 3M masks for the first time received a huge amount of orders, and therefore set up factories involved in the production of masks in Singapore and the United States, a long-term earnings growth drivers 3MOne of the important business. 2, the domestic market impact and opportunity analysis highlights the value of investments: The biggest problem that is inefficient medical devices (such as masks, protective clothing, etc.) and a shortage of medical supplies distribution system of this epidemic exposed. In the future, more efficiently match demand and respond quickly to do new pharmaceutical and healthcare supply chain related businesses will have investment value. (F) textile and apparel supply chain structural changes in consumption resulting in an overall limited impact: short-term epidemic will affect sales at clothing exports and domestic lines, but clothing as the highest frequency of online shopping categories, online sales make up a large extent the performance of the line weak, the epidemic is expected limited impact on the garment industry as a whole, and thus will not significantly impact the supply chain of textile and garment enterprises. Medium and long term, the epidemic to the textile and apparel supply chain business opportunities: traditional garment factories affected by the epidemic, will be transferred to the line supply chain platform for fabric sourcing, supply chain platform for online services and efficient supply chain system can cultivate customer retention, thus achieving revenue growth and increase market share. At the same time, the new textile and apparel supply chain upstream and downstream enterprises have the ability to energize, through networking and other technology to guide the upstream production, downstream and timely response to demand, while enhancing upstream capacity utilization, will benefit from this in the long-term trend. Second, the epidemic of B2B supply chain industry influence and opportunities for development summarized (a) short-term impact of the epidemic outbreak on China’s macro-economic impact on the formation, therefore, most of the B2B supply chain verticals whole by the temporary impact. Medium and long term, the epidemic on the overall business operations and long-term impact is limited. But also in the economic downturn in the CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , stimulate corporate cost efficiency demands the surrender of the long-term positive development of B2B supply chain industry. (B) a development opportunity, accelerate the industry consolidation epidemic and economic downturn, the head track segments enterprises with stable and reliable service, as well as the more obvious financial strength will accelerate merger and efforts to increase market share and accelerate industry consolidation the weak will gradually be assessed cleared. 2, B2B industry will be rapid development of the Internet model, mainly in the following three aspects: B end customer purchasing habits change: by the epidemic, the traditional procurement process forced to transfer to the line. Therefore, with excellent online service capabilities of B2B supply chain companies will be the B-side customers of all ages during the epidemic, and can be held after the outbreakContinued to guide the customer’s purchase behavior, enabling customers to form a viscous platform. The new B2B supply chain enterprises to improve information transmission mechanism of supply and demand: supply and demand on the traditional supply chain information between the downstream transmission mechanism of long-term poor, therefore, a serious capacity bottlenecks in the epidemic bursts. Deep in the vertical field of industry-specific B2B supply chain, by virtue of the intervention in the chain and the flat depth information transmission mechanism , can be efficiently produced in response to the upstream downstream demand enterprise , through the integration of Internet companies required to produce the necessary factors of production of raw materials, equipment, production process, so as to achieve the production of guidance and intervention to improve upstream efficiency. Food supply chain companies, especially toC ability of enterprises has been prominent in the fresh outbreak: During the epidemic, a large number of consumer food purchasing behavior transferred to the line, therefore, have toC toB enterprise supply chain service capabilities will be due to the epidemic contrarian development, more importantly, at the end of the outbreak, cultivate customer stickiness of the C-terminal platform, thickening its barriers to competition.