Anticipation: Three points of the spread of the epidemic at the global industrial chain reconstruction

As of March 29, the global total of new crown pneumonia diagnosed more than 66 million people in 199 countries and regions have confirmed cases , over 60 countries have declared a state of emergency, Asia, Europe , the Americas have become the hardest hit, plant shutdown, shops closed down, schools closed, the world economy is suffering unprecedented challenges. This is the biggest overall threat since World War II ended in 1945, the global economy faces. In the economic globalization today, any one product is likely to be more collaboration between the countries, it is reflected in the overall value chain worldwide. At present, the global industry chain is already inevitable epidemic affect or even destroy, are facing a serious economic situation, on the one hand we must actively fight the epidemic, China’s fight against SARS experience to share with the world, to curb the development of the global epidemic as soon as possible; the other on the one hand, we have the opportunity to see the epidemic as a result of the reconstruction of the industrial chain, to play an active power distribution after the outbreak of economic development, make China’s contribution to the reconstruction of the global value chain, recovery of the world economic order.
First, China’s achievements in disease control achieved, is making center of the world industrial chain transfer to the Chinese market. Two months ago, China’s new round crown pneumonia outbreak, the Chinese government carried out the Thunder trend nationwide fight against SARS work, the effect is significant, China’s domestic growth to almost zero cases March 29. What was once the world’s most infections, it has gradually become a world epidemic in the safest place. This huge shift not just for China to win the reputation and experience of the successful fight against SARS Control Engineering Copyright , more importantly, will win the Chinese market, the opportunity to win the global industrial chain reconstruction. Since February, Chinese enterprises to actively return to work to resume production, according to Securities Daily reported that the rate of return to work to resume production as of March 22 listed companies have more than 98%, the Chinese market has gradually recovered after the impact of the epidemic, which are the global fight against SARS It is a good thing. Many companies had thought China’s industrial chain will be abandoned because of the epidemic in other countries, China will passively decoupled from the world economy, but with the proliferation worldwide epidemic, in other countries there have been large-scale work stoppage, China actually become the world’s most productive capacity stability in the region, is a haven for world manufacturing stage, and therefore will get more opportunities.Chinese manufacturing scale now has accounted for 30% of China’s GDP, accounting for global manufacturing is also nearly 30 percent, though it is called China the world’s factory, but the mercy of the global industrial chain in the development of quality manufacturing original division of labor, has not been very high. Since entering in March, China’s manufacturing industry resumed production complex situation Enthusiasm, many companies due to the disappearance of orders in Europe and America can not resume production, or even face closure; but we see, there are some business orders has not decreased, there is a large level of growth, such as Suzhou, Chongqing and other places of the electronics manufacturing industry. In essence, because in these places has formed a chain clusters, electronics manufacturing related ancillary components, more than 80% are locally produced. This clustering mode of production reduces the risk from global sourcing of parts caused by Control Engineering Copyright , in the period epidemic more prominently show their competitiveness. That is to say, those in our industry chain relatively complete industrial clusters, will generate growth in orders in the case of the outbreak, some multinational companies also will be original to be produced in other countries in Europe, Asia and other orders to transfer China’s such plants. So the industry chain cluster is an important feature of this outbreak in the reconstruction of the global industrial chain, China has formed a chain or cluster formation is about to attract global industrial chain of high-end manufacturing base located in China. We must seize the next 2 to 3 years of important strategic window of the global industrial chain reconstruction, deepening reform and opening up, grasping the opportunity to be “foreign capital added chain”, “foreign capital chain,” use of the world’s capital markets, “living water” for irrigation of high-end manufacturing industry chain of “good land.” In Guangdong, Hong Kong Bay Area region, the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing, Tianjin and Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone and other areas Twins, nine countries around the strategic emerging industries, and strive to build a number of regional industry chain cluster. These chain clusters are the various components of the global industrial chain concentrated in a specific area, in the region remains horizontal division of global suppliers, but also the formation of vertical integration within the regional industrial chain, thereby greatly reducing the industry chain cluster anti-risk ability. At the same time due to the huge industrial chain cluster size of the market, increasing its voice in the global industrial ecology, and thus the size of the market with key technologies to avoid being the strangle hold the potential business risks. Second, countries in the world to fight the epidemic and efforts to restore production made, will flock to a variety of resources on the Chinese market objective. 2020 3Since May, in the face of the epidemic caused by the huge US financial market adjustment, the Fed has taken a sharp interest rate cut, QE (quantitative easing), repurchase operations , and enabled the crisis toolbox . US time on March 13, the Fed huge amount of periodic repurchase operation; March 15, the Fed cut interest rates again 100bps, while lowering the deposit reserve ratio to 0%, and start the $ 700 billion quantitative easing program; March 23, the Fed announced further extensive package of policies to support the economy, including the implementation of no upper limit of the amount of QE, the expansion of existing MMLF (money market mutual fund liquidity facility) and CPFF (commercial Paper funding Facility) in the range of collateral, create a new project to support the real economy credit. Europe, many Asian countries have adopted a similar policy. In other words, governments in order to save its economy, all have released a variety of resources, continue to inject liquidity into the market. When a lot of money into the global market, in addition to some financial funds can be used to buy supplies and the fight against SARS solve their problems outside of their own populations, most of the funds or funds of financial, industrial and must be combined pursuit and 5% to 10% rate of return. From a global perspective, able to receive these funds and to meet the needs of the market is not much in return, the Chinese market is currently the best disease control, but also the least risky place to invest, so the global liquidity flock to China is a large market for some time probability event. The influx of liquidity is an opportunity for China, but also a huge challenge that requires careful respond. From the real economy, China admitted the global industrial chain, to build industry chain cluster of course, we will get a lot of low-cost international financial support, thus truly “foreign capital added chain”, “foreign capital chain,” to accelerate the completion of China’s four economic circle, the construction industry chain cluster of nine strategic emerging industries; from the financial market point of view, the introduction of foreign capital through reasonable, can stimulate the development potential of China’s financial market, especially the Chinese stock market will get more attention of international capital for China development of listed companies to bring international financial support, which is more conducive to speed up the construction of the industrial chain of listed companies cluster. In the next period of time, with the development of the epidemic, more foreign investors will see the development prospects of China’s industrial chain market, and are willing to put funds to prepare to join the Chinese industry chain cluster of companies, this trendIt is bound to bring capital market development and the establishment of the industrial chain cluster of rare historic opportunity for China. Note, however, more flood irrigation needs China’s real economy is strong enough, we need to develop and implement policies related to the ability to have enough innovation. The face of today’s world situation, China no experience can learn a lot, need to get out of our own a new path of development. In terms of Chinese enterprises, need to continue to maintain sufficient anyone, technological innovation and model innovation, with core competencies in order to control them in the international capital tide, otherwise it will not be hurting their own and the majority of Chinese investors. Third, the Chinese government at all levels should adhere to the expansion of reform and opening up, accelerate the optimization of the business environment, in an orderly manner and actively participate in the global industrial chain reconstruction. Opportunities will always be those who are prepared, in the face of capital market development and reconstruction of the historical opportunity of industrial chain epidemic brings, we should follow the instructions of General Secretary Xi Jinping, continue to implement the proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy, unswervingly expand the reform and opening. In the current situation, to expand market access for foreign investment in the wider area. Accelerate the pace of opening up to foreign financial institutions, the policies that have been put in place to speed up, so that foreign financial institutions to the international release of funds into the Chinese market. China has implemented pre-admission national treatment plus negative inventory management model, where the economic conditions of the four rings, etc., should substantially reduce the negative list as soon as possible, to promote modern service industry, advanced manufacturing, modern agriculture and other high-end industries a full range of foreign open, allowing foreign ownership or sole proprietorship, to attract more global industrial chain-related enterprises in China, and joining regional chain clusters. Investment in the industry chain cluster is an important driving force of China’s GDP stimulating future growth, every industry chain cluster four regions, nine strategic emerging industries formed, it is likely to bring hundreds of billions trillion investment in the order, and thus leveraging the industrial added value of trillions of dollars, a tremendous role in promoting national economic development. Other areas other than the four regions have their own characteristics, to build in accordance with local economic development characteristics, ranging from the size of the industry chain cluster, improve the quality of regional economic development. Governments at all levels should, under the unified arrangements of the central Control Engineering Copyright , bold innovation policy, by all means test the layout of free trade zones, accelerate business optimization software and hardware environment. Hardware, in addition to the traditional construction of high-tech zone, the open area outside, but also to speed upBuilding to 5G, big data, Internet of things for the new infrastructure on behalf of, provide first-class business the hard environment to attract global industrial chain; software, to improve the digital service level government departments, in good faith efficient, fair competition, open cooperation transparent security software business environment to attract more global companies to join China’s industrial chain cluster, promote domestic supply system quality and efficiency improved significantly. Local governments must unswervingly develop the industrial chain clusters, support the introduction of the world’s leading enterprises in the industry chain has become the core of the cluster, while foreign demand is still weak efforts to create local demand, domestic demand-driven industry, small cycles, ensure the industry chain cluster healthy development; when the foreign market recovery, to further strengthen international cooperation, expand the cluster size and quality of development the industry, driven by the global industrial chain of large circulation. March 26, Chinese President Xi Jinping in the Group of Twenty (G20) leaders address new crown pneumonia emphasize the special summit, to jointly safeguard the stability of the global industrial chain supply chain. His speech fully embodies the Chinese nation against the big crown when new outbreaks of pneumonia to play in the world, also shows that China confident and at ease in the maintenance of stability of the global industrial chain. Epidemic is a human disaster, but also the global industrial chain transformation and upgrading opportunities. China should seize Europe and part of the industry shut down, the chance of recession, accelerate the “fill attract investment chain” in Guangdong, Hong Kong Grand Bay area of ​​Beijing, Tianjin, the Yangtze River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Zone and other key areas Twins create a number of space high degree of concentration, close collaboration upstream and downstream supply chain intensive and efficient, the scale of hundreds of billions to trillions of strategic emerging industry chain cluster. Once a division of labor that is both levels, but also vertically integrated industry chain of open clusters, will not only help prevent global industrial chain scission to deal with natural disasters like the risk of new outbreaks of pneumonia caused by the crown, and because the industry chain huge market share in the formation of the cluster itself, can effectively avoid the risk of being strangle hold the key technologies and helps accelerate the formation of industrial clusters in the chain innovation capacity of key technologies. China’s regional industrial cluster chain is the world’s industrial chain clusters, reflecting China’s contribution to global economic governance and social governance, will also reduce the risk of running the economy of all mankind, effectively resist the new crown pneumonia epidemic and other major crises important measure .

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