Heavy! Deutsche Bank Labor report: How robots decide the future of China

Recently, Citibank said the next five years will be reduced by 10,000 technical and operational personnel, to replace the robot, reduce the cost of labor inputs. When investment banks also joined the “robots replace human” in the ranks, it means that no one can escape this wave of wave? Deutsche Bank noted the magazine’s latest issue of “Konzept”, the current situation of China’s labor force, or will lead China to embark on the road of industrial automation. In the eyes of Deutsche Bank, shrinking labor force is one of the biggest long-term challenge facing China Control Engineering Copyright , from 2014 to 2015 is an important turning point. During that period, the Chinese working-age population peaked. But with the arrival of an aging population , China dependency ratio bottomed out in 2010; despite the growth in manufacturing wages, but workers are still moving away from labor-intensive manufacturing jobs.
The bank noted that because of rising labor costs, Chinese shoes and apparel exports to the US market share fell sharply. In 2010, the “Made in China” clothing accounted for 48% of the US footwear market, this figure has now dropped to 39%. In contrast, the “Vietnam made” double market share to 16% in the same period. To solve the problem of labor costs, Chinese manufacturers face two choices: First, investment machinery and equipment , in order to reduce dependence on labor; the second is the transition from labor-intensive to capital-intensive industries based industries. However, both methods need to be investing heavily in industrial automation. The Chinese apparently has steadily moving forward in this direction. Chinese manufacturing power Roadmap 2015 published “Made in China 2025” has been mentioned, focusing on the key focus areas of manufacturing, engineering and innovation to carry out a new generation of integrated information technology and manufacturing equipment integration. With the support of political research joint research, development of smart products and smart self-control devices and industrialization. Relying on the advantages of enterprise, closely linked to the key processes intelligent robots replace key positions, production process intelligence optimization control, supply chain optimization, by 2020, key areas of intelligent manufacturing level was significantly improved, pilot and demonstration projects to reduce operating costs by 30%, products production cycle time by 30%, 30% reduction in defect rate. By 2025, the full realization of intelligent manufacturing industry focus areas, pilot and demonstrationProject operating costs reduced by 50%, production cycle reduced by 50% defect rate reduced by 50%. The bank said, without a doubt, China’s industrial automation investment scale is huge, but the actual efficiency still need to continue their efforts. At present, China uses for industrial robots is still in its early stages. Chinese robot density (every ten thousand to the number of manufacturing workers in the industrial robot to measure) is only 68, slightly lower than the global average level of 74, and South Korea (631), the gap between Germany (309) and Japan (303) more It is huge.
Deutsche Bank estimated that in 2016 global sold 300,000 industrial robots CONTROL ENGINEERING China Copyright , of which 30% sold in China. Assuming that this market share further increased to 40%, China needs more than 10 years to the robot density is raised to the level of 200 (old robot undergo, the situation is not counting replacement), but this figure is still far behind Japan and South Korea today. Deutsche Bank said that this situation shows two things: 1. China’s industrial automation and required several years of time effort; 2. In order to meet China’s demand for industrial robots and other advanced manufacturing equipment related markets have to further expansion. However, Deutsche Bank also sees great potential in China’s industrial automation. Seven years ago Control Engineering Copyright , automation in China almost no place, and now there is a lot of progress.
Foxconn has been committed to the development and deployment of robotic operations, trying to achieve a 30% automated production plant in China in 2020; Chinese home appliance giant factory in the United States are also increasing the use of robots, which owns more than 200 factories in Wuhan after the robot, halving the number of workers, productivity has increased by a quarter. In addition, Deutsche Bank also cited Guangzhou, Foshan government survey of 200 companies showed that nearly half of them have started to use industrial robots and production efficiency improved by 10% to 30%. Deutsche Bank said that automation can be avoided Chinese economic growth slowed sharply in 2020 after the rise of automation of labor-intensive industries will eventually slow the competitiveness of the recession.

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