In the past six months, the winter of the market has swept the entire furniture industry. In the context of overcapacity and backwardness, the development of the furniture industry is facing many unfavorable factors: the domestic market is under the pressure of rapid rise in raw material costs and labor costs.
The export market is facing the pressure of shrinking exports, RMB appreciation and trade wars; the upstream of the industrial chain is facing increasingly scarce raw materials with rising prices; the downstream sales market is facing the industry’s own marketing methods. The price wars of enterprises disrupt the market. The state promotes the policy of hardcover housing. Many decoration companies sell furniture in “cross-border” and divert a lot of market. At the same time, real estate has been affected by macro-control policies in recent days, and the sales turnover rate has dropped, which also affects furniture sales.
But the word “crisis” and the word “risk” are followed by “machine”. This cold winter may only be a test for the furniture company to move from “mixing the dragon to the dragon” to “deathing the truth”. . Then, in what kind of environment the furniture company will continue to develop in the future, we can see from the following data.
1. The urbanization process has obviously accelerated, and the second and third-tier cities may become the new main consumer market.
The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed that China should be within the first 20 years of this century. Concentrate on building a higher-level well-off society in an all-round way. The goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way will promote social needs in all aspects and will therefore provide opportunities for further development of the furniture industry. The national urbanization rate (the proportion of urban population to total population) increased from 36.22% in 2000 to 57.35% in 2016, with an average annual growth of 1.32 percentage points. Assuming that this growth rate remains unchanged, based on the total population of 1.383 billion in 2016, the number of people who will be converted to urban residents in the future will be at least 18.26 million. Assuming 3 households per household, the corresponding housing needs will be 6.09 million. In the 21st century, the Chinese government has proposed to accelerate the pace of urbanization and small urbanization. The 16th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed to comprehensively prosper the rural economy and accelerate the process of urbanization in order to further stimulate the consumer market and expand the consumption sector. This national initiative will further promote the construction of housing in China, which will lead to the development of housing-related industries. According to the needs of the society and the needs of development, the State Council has proposed the industrialization of housing. This initiative will drive the standardization, serialization and industrialization of tens of thousands of products for housing. Due to the development of residential industrialization, housing enters the market as a commodity, providing a space for development of various types of furniture and accessory products.
2. Furniture will be closer to the high-end direction
There are many varieties of medium and low-end furniture in China’s furniture market, and there is a situation of oversupply, and high-end furniture can not meet the market. demand. The domestic production of high-end furniture is insufficient. From the processing methods, the technical level of workers and the supply of raw and auxiliary materials, the conditions for producing high-grade furniture cannot be met. Many high-end furniture sold in China are imported. At present, the production of medium and high-end furniture is growing, and low-grade products with poor quality are gradually retreating to the bottom line market. For the middle and low-end furniture products with high homogeneity of products, especially the low-end furniture, either expand the scale to reduce the cost of small profits but quick turnover, or increase the design to pursue added value, there is no third way to choose. The current middle class in China is developing rapidly. The data predicts that by 2020, this part of the mainstream middle-class consumer group will be close to half, and the number is close to 500 million (middle class is the middle class, m is million, that is, one million). High-end furniture is a high-growth market that has benefited significantly from the rise of the middle class and above. The most important driving factor is the rapid growth of the scale of middle- and high-income families themselves, and this number has been expanding for several years. High-end furniture may no longer be a product that a few rich people can consume in the future, and the middle class may become The mainstay of high-end furniture consumption. One unhealthy news is that the population marriage rate has continued to decline in recent years. The most direct result of the reduction in the marriage rate of the population is the reduction in housing demand, but the impact on the company may not be apparent until after ten or twenty years, but we must always make long-term plans, if new With less housing, the demand for furniture is bound to decrease. Since entering 2013, the number of Chinese marriage registrations has been declining annually. The current main force for marriage is the post-85s and post-90s. This generation is mostly an only child. With the main force of marriage after the 85s and 90s, the number of marriage registrations in China has dropped for four consecutive years. According to statistics, in 2017, the number of marriage registrations in the country was 10.591 million, a decrease of 837,000 pairs from the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 7.3%. According to a set of data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, the number of marriages nationwide in the first quarter of 2018 was 3.017 million pairs, down 5.7% year-on-year. The marriage rate in economically developed areas such as Shanghai, Zhejiang and Tianjin was generally low. Compared with the high of 4.282 million pairs of marriages in the same period five years ago, it has dropped by 29.54% in the first quarter of 2018. But population growth will fluctuate because of changes in policies and living environment, so we will use this data for reference.
3. The sales area of housing is reduced, but this is a good thing?
Affected by national policies, the growth rate of housing sales area has declined in recent months. The transaction rate is bound to decline. However, this reflects to a certain extent that under the circumstances that China’s policy efforts continue to increase, the speculators and speculators have apparently withdrawn from the real estate market. At the same time, relevant policies are promptly followed up in the housing needs of the newly-needed people and the supply of affordable housing. It guarantees the purchase and housing environment of the people who just need it. However, the decline in sales area is definitely not a performance of real estate downturn. The data shows that from January to July 2018, the national real estate development investment was 655.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.2%, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than that in January-June. Among them, residential investment was 464.3 billion yuan, an increase of 14.2%, and the growth rate increased by 0.6 percentage points. China’s real estate industry has begun toHousing and housing are not speculative, renting and purchasing, policy support and other directions of good development, the quality of people’s housing, will inevitably affect the demand for furniture, which is a good thing for furniture companies. Although the overall housing transaction rate is declining, but in the overall environment of the housing transaction area decline, the housing sales area of the third-tier cities continues to lead, and its purchasing capacity far exceeds the above-mentioned data of first- and second-tier cities, and people are generally reluctant to give birth. In the big environment, we found that the first-tier cities began to appear opposite to the third-tier cities: the economic development areas such as Beishangguang were generally low, and the five provinces with the lowest marriage rate were Shanghai and Zhejiang. In Tianjin, Jiangxi and Shandong, the marriage rates were 0.45%, 0.61%, 0.61%, 0.62%, and 0.63%, respectively. In contrast, the five provinces with the highest marriage rates are Guizhou, Anhui, Tibet, Qinghai, and Henan, and the marriage rates are all above 0.91%, and the per capita GDP of these regions is relatively low. The marriage rate and the level of economic development show the opposite trend. In the first-tier cities, there is a state of not wanting to live or buy a house. However, although the overall second- and third-tier cities are lower, they still maintain a high fertility willingness, and their housing sales are also in the forefront of the country. Perhaps the third-tier cities will soon become furniture. The main consumer market of enterprises.
4.Improved housing is also a big thrust for furniture companies
Improved housing can be understood as just as needed – your house will be bought sooner or later, and future people can Dominant income is definitely on the rise, so improved housing has become a must-have for people. At the same time, the national policy is fully open to the “second child”. The ordinary apartment type is no longer suitable for people’s living needs. People have higher requirements on the area of the house and even the supporting facilities. The demand for improved house replacement is also increasing. Big. At present, the Chinese people’s demand for housing has begun to enter the “taste” era. The core of the future residential pursuit is a comfortable, cozy, tasteful life philosophy, and an urban emerging lifestyle. As the proportion of the population in the first-tier cities changes, the improved housing will gradually enter the honeymoon period.
5. The wave of secondary decoration is coming
The real estate industry in China has entered a stage of rapid development in recent years, and the demand for renovation of stock houses has gradually increased, and it is expected to become the main demand for households in the future. Driving force. Due to the relatively early development of the first-tier cities, the housing construction time has been more than 10 years, so the first-tier cities began to enter a large-scale “refurbishment period.” At the same time, driven by the national urbanization process, the value of housing renovation in the country may be much higher than estimated. With the improvement of China’s per capita disposable income and the advancement of urbanization, the concept of brand consumption has gradually penetrated the hearts of the people. In 2016, the proportion of middle-to-high-income people in China (annual disposable income > 200,000 yuan) has reached 2.6% of the total population. It is expected that this proportion will increase to 14.5% by 2030. As the middle class continues to grow, the trend of consumption upgrades in the home industry will become more apparent, ultimately reflecting the increase in orders and customer unit prices of branded home furnishing businesses, resulting in high revenue growth. After each winter, there will always be manufacturers who have the strength to settle. This winter is to let us better understand our position and strength, and understand what the company needs to do next and prepare. After experiencing the baptism of the winter, we have eliminated those unscrupulous enterprises that have troubled the fish and managed to have problems. The future market will be more orderly and fair.
Winter is coming, will spring be far behind?
(provided by Shenyang Building Materials Network) <
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