Supply chain spread, Apple bargain-hunting time has come to?

Apple now some anxiety. A sudden outbreak, disrupting all mobile phone manufacturers to ship new releases planned and expected, Apple is no exception. Apple, the greatest impact is undoubtedly the supply chain. After the chain, according to industry sources said this year than Apple iPhone prepared to order cheap 30 million, while orders in the month of 200-400 million units but the current situation is that Foxconn foundries delayed return to work, return to work part of the production line production capacity, seriously affected the production and deliveries of new products, and then spread to ship sales. The second is the Apple retail stores around the world are affected. As early as February 1, Apple closed all retail stores in China. Italy and other countries affected by the epidemic, Apple has announced the indefinite closure of all Apple retail stores in Italy. This is an important reason for the capital market worried about Apple – Apple supply chain dependent on the Chinese market to restore the huge system of production and logistics system, it is impossible to do in a short time, analysts even worry about the epidemic spread to Foxconn and similar the company’s factory production lines and cause part of the supply chain is frozen trigger a chain-style shortages. This also led to the capital market to Apple’s sales are expected today with the new release schedule is not optimistic about Apple’s current stock price from the high point of the line at the beginning of 2020 fell by 16%, Apple’s current stock price fell below $ 250. However, more than one apple fell, large US technology stocks fell almost across the board. Need to know is that in 2019 Apple’s stock has been rising year rose more than 100%, the share price rose more than 530 billion dollars in 2020, January 15, Apple’s market capitalization had reached 1.3 trillion US dollars. At that time many analysts put the satellite, he said Apple’s stock price also jumped 50%. Of course, part of the so-called analysts at hindsight majority.
plunged $ 200 billion, Apple has experienced three times from the past 5 years 3 to 5 years, Apple’s stock price has never been always straight up or straight down, but the wave is quite clear cyclical ups and downs and performance. We can say that Apple’s ups and downs in the body is the norm. Apple’s current share price of 1.09 trillion relative to the previous peak of evaporation of more than 2000 billion dollars. From 2016 to now, Apple’s share price nearly $ 200 billion a year evaporate about 3 times, once in the second half 2015 – first half of 2016, the second half of 2014 before this- In early 2015, with sales rising iPhone6 ​​break the record, Apple’s market value at the peak of 7,500 billion US dollars. With iPhone6s release, innovation is less than expected, the end of March 2016, the first decline in shipments, market concerns about the “iPhone shipments have peaked”, leading shares fell 6.3%. Later iPhone7 release, Apple’s market value fell to about 550 billion US dollars. The second crash evaporated more than 200 billion dollars in about November 20, 2018, hovering around that time that the market value of 839.8 billion US dollars. Prior – August 3, 2018, Apple is the world’s first sprint trillion dollar company, then its market value is also based on the constantly refreshed Control Engineering Copyright , but three months after its market value evaporated nearly $ 220 billion from its highs, analysts said at the time, which is Apple since the 2008 financial crisis in Apple stock market performance in the worst month. Today, Apple’s market once again fell nearly 200 billion US dollars. In other words, it fell $ 200 billion, Apple has experienced three times the past five years. The reason behind this is not complicated. Because Apple’s revenue is highly dependent on the hardware, which determines Apple’s price-earnings ratio can not simply analogy Google Amazon, Facebook and other technology companies, but much lower than the latter. The latter is a growth-oriented enterprises, the Internet service business model and technology giant B-end enterprise revenue model once formed, with some of the expected performance of steady growth, less volatile, and Apple’s hardware sales cycle has its ups and downs nature, volatile, while hardware sales is closely related to the volatility of its stock price ups and downs. Apple’s current share price of 1.09 trillion relative to the previous peak of evaporation of nearly 200 billion dollars, which is backed by the capital market for its hardware sales is expected to reach a new low. At the same time, Apple’s hardware sales also affected the number of group revenue service of Apple. The question is, relative to the previous two shares fell, the situation faced by Apple in the end is more optimistic or more pessimistic? As analysis know, the first two Apple shares fell $ 200 billion, and its products are derived from the performance fell short of expectations, with more internal. The first was iPhone6s and iPhone 7 is not particularly innovative. Consumers desire to upgrade new lows hovering, capital markets worried about Apple’s product innovation bottleneck will continue to affect iPhone sales performance. The second reason is almost the same like, is placed impulse important product Apple iPhone XR, its price has not been recognized by the market. iPhoneXS Series lack of innovation, but the price hit a new high, resulting in blocked sales, market share being eroded, the capital market began to question Apple’s pricing strategy and product competitiveness. And today, in fact, more and outbreaks of disease caused by supply chain capacity is affected, this objective related to the external environment, Apple has been a large number of the environmental impact of US technology stocks fell the collective, the current US stock market fell across the board suffered as one camp member FAANG, Apple can not avoid being affected. And before that, iPhone11 series of sales is helping Apple to regain lost ground, Credit Suisse analyst Matthew Cabral (MatthewCabral), said his survey showed that in December 2019, iPhone shipments up in China an increase of 18.7%, far exceeding the 13.7% decline in the same period in the region’s smartphone market. This confirms the iPhone as long as the return to a reasonable value, popularity value, brand value and high-end position in the market for their products is still no one can shake. Also is AirPods Apple products are playing a new explosion models. In 2019, analysts estimate Apple sold 60 million pairs AirPods. AirPods in 2019 revenues of $ 12 billion. According to industry statistics report showed, AirPods revenue has exceeded Nvidia, AMD, the world’s top technology companies, equivalent to the sum Spotify, Twitter, Snap and Shopify’s. AirPods of Apple in addition to the iPhone, the most successful product in recent years. From the moment Apple 1.3 trillion in market value of the high points of view, Apple’s price-earnings ratio that time compared to other large technology giants of Silicon Valley in terms of Control Engineering Copyright , (Microsoft, Google and Facebook are in earnings between 29 times to 35 times, the Amazon this year’s price-earnings ratio is higher than 80), Apple’s price-earnings ratio is still ranked the lowest. And today, Apple’s price-earnings ratio lower again, which means that Apple’s current share price once again in the value of depression. Greedy when others are fearful, greedy when others fear has been Buffett’s investment credo. Apple last two apple fell 2When the 00 billion dollars it has strong holdings of Apple’s move. For example, in 2016, Apple’s market value fell after iPhone7 released about 550 billion dollars in market capitalization. And at that time, Buffett has strong holdings in Apple. By the end of 2016, closing the year up 10%, the market value increased by $ 56 billion to $ 617 billion. And later in 2018 can be seen from Apple’s crazy rally – 2017, Buffett earned pours from Apple cyclical ups and downs in the stock price. This is followed in November 2018, after Apple’s 8-day losing streak, falling trillion market capitalization of $ 845 billion from Buffett at the same time in the holdings of Apple. Berkshire Hathaway in the third quarter of 2018 and bought about 52.2802 million shares of Apple stock. Later, from the Apple share price performance, the first two of Buffett’s holdings have earned pours. In this first year, Buffett’s holdings of whether Apple will once again remains to be seen, but know that Apple’s current share price once again in the value of depression. Why is not all current Apple is facing bad news? Under epidemic, Apple suffered supply chain capacity crisis, the current predicament almost all mobile phone manufacturers are facing. From Apple’s own potential and stock price declines of the previous two conditions to see Control Engineering Copyright , whether it is the current Apple hardware revenue, as well as new product innovation performance growth curve (AirPods) being formed, Apple currently facing the market situation and product innovation, brand competitiveness, user acceptance pricing are worse than the previous two. The capital market in Apple’s supply chain in China market concerns reflected in the share price, but such fears may be a bit overdone, Wall Street believes Apple’s supply chain is a worst-case interrupt to June, but for now Apple’s supply chain and retail stores both in terms of, Apple faces a situation is improving. Foxconn Zhengzhou return to work the complex yield over 80% of the park, has been able to meet the basic iPhone supply. And China’s epidemic is being effectively controlled, the situation towards the right direction, even though Apple is currently forced to close all stores in Italy, but Apple retail stores in China have all been most open for business, CNBC earlier that Apple in China there are 42 stores in 38 has been reopened, but business hours shortened. The reason why the current situation is not all bad for Apple, because as the epidemic in the past, iPhone sales rise almost predictable. In the current term, investors Apple is also expected to start low to the bottom, which could rebound in the stock is a good thing for Apple. Because it means that the bubble has been a crowded stage. Apple just needs a stable follow-up shipments by a corresponding adjustment of the supply chain to push up sales by appropriate adjustment of pricing strategy, its share price will be greatly rise. In other words, Apple is due to the impact of the epidemic is difficult to achieve the desired shipment has been investors continued to digest, as long as Apple’s future performance has exceeded expectations, may reach a huge change. In addition , the epidemic affected the current iPhone cheap version iPhoneSE2 series of new sales forecast , but if this wave and delayed shipments decline, then this part of the purchase group is likely to swing 5G version of the new iPhone this fall. IPhone purchase immediately suppressed demand is likely to be released in the fall when the new iPhone 5G release, pushing its potential explosion models. Further potential is Apple’s services business may also be underestimated. From 2019 to launch Apple Apple TV and other Apple Arcade service products, will increase the average income of the value of a single user, with the 5G era, the value of these content services business may be released. Apple also strong cash flow situation for Apple to improve the supply chain and stock repurchase program underpinning. On the one hand, in recent years, Apple’s stock price rose, is closely related to its long-term share repurchase. On the other hand, Apple’s supply chain system has some flexibility. Andrew Uerkwitz from the point of view of foreign analysts, the company’s products and services “in uncertain times tougher than competing products,” he believes that “changing customer demand and supply chain uncertainty” Apple case the reason better than their peers. And noted that the company’s strong balance sheet can maintain the agility of the supply chain, and continue to support its capital return program. “Cook recently mentioned for their supply chain strategy to defend the time:” Apple experienced an earthquake, hurricane, fire, flood, tsunami, SARS, but operations teams have depth all the solutions, and when things come to an end, we we need to ask ourselves, those parts of the supply chain, there is no toughness, whether we need to make some changes? “ThenDown to see how to deal with Apple’s supply chain change in the situation, to optimize the supply chain strategy supply. But we can predict that after experiencing the epidemic, competitiveness and robustness of Apple’s supply chain system could be further strengthened. The first two Apple shares fell nearly $ 200 billion when Buffett holdings are quietly admission earn pours, from the current environment, Apple is also in line with the status of the law of Buffett’s investment: 1, a huge investment excellent opportunity from the company was trapped in an unusual environment, while the stock is undervalued error. 2, cash flow has been steady large enterprises temporary crisis or stock market decline, there has been a profitable transaction price. Now Apple is in the unusual market conditions trapped the stage, but also to re-enter a new period of price volatility, capital markets might also be concerned about Apple’s current wave of short-term return on investment, the moment may also ushered in a new Apple hunters round good time.


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